To analyze local economic performance across North Carolina, the Labor & Economic Analysis Division (LEAD) developed a County Economic Vitality Index. The index measures four factors—median household income, average wage, unemployment rate, and educational attainment—against national benchmarks. These are combined into a composite score for each of the state’s 100 counties and tracked over a 15-year period.
According to the latest available data from 2024, North Carolina scored 98.4 on the index, which is 1.6% below the national average but marks the highest score for the state since at least 2010.
The report found that high-performing counties are concentrated around major metropolitan areas such as those in the Triangle region, Charlotte, and Virginia Beach metros. In total, 11 counties outperformed the U.S. average in 2024. Additionally, seven other counties—including Moore, Cabarrus, Lincoln, Henderson, Davie, Franklin, and Pender—are nearing parity with national figures.
Widespread improvement was noted throughout North Carolina: ninety counties have improved faster than the nation since 2010. The report includes a bubble chart that visualizes each county’s current performance against long-term change from 2010 to 2024 and population shifts during that time.
Counties were grouped into four categories based on their recent performance and trends:
– “Thriving” counties both outperform the U.S. average and show improvement.
– “Waning” counties outperform nationally but have declined.
– “Gaining” counties underperform nationally but are improving.
– “Struggling” counties underperform and have declined.
Population changes closely align with economic performance: among the top-scoring counties (those with scores above .915 in 2024), all but one saw population increases between 2010 and 2024. Conversely, all of the lowest-scoring counties (below .825) experienced population declines during this period.
The analysis also shows significant disparities within North Carolina. Suburban areas and rural western parts of the state have seen rapid improvement. In contrast, several mid-sized metro areas—including Fayetteville, Triad cities like Greensboro-Winston-Salem-High Point, Goldsboro, Rocky Mount, and Greenville—have struggled to keep pace or have fallen behind national averages.
Single-year events can be identified through index fluctuations; for example, eight western NC counties experienced their steepest annual decline from 2023 to 2024 following Hurricane Helene’s impact—with Buncombe County falling below its own 2010 score.
Key contributors to county-level gains include lower unemployment rates and higher rates of high school completion. However, persistent gaps in wages and household incomes continue to limit progress in many rural and smaller metro communities.
“Taken together, these findings suggest that North Carolina’s economic improvement has been broad but uneven,” states LEAD’s summary of results. “Much of the improvement across counties has been driven by tightening labor market and increasing high school graduation. At the same time, persistent gaps in wages and household income continue to constrain performance in many rural and smaller metro counties.”
The division plans further analysis to better understand what drives gains or holds back specific regions as policymakers look for ways to sustain growth statewide.
