North Carolina’s greenhouse gas emissions have reached their lowest point in decades, according to an updated inventory released by the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ). The report provides detailed estimates from 1990 through 2022 and projects future emissions through 2050.
Despite these reductions, forecasts suggest that increased use of natural gas and coal for electricity generation could temporarily reverse some gains in the coming years. Net emissions are expected to rise by 7% between 2022 and 2030 before resuming a downward trend toward mid-century.
“This report shows that common sense policies to reduce our state’s carbon emissions have succeeded while our economy has flourished,” said DEQ Secretary Reid Wilson. “We know that the demand for energy is growing. This inventory and the recent interim report from Governor Josh Stein’s Energy Policy Task Force underscore the need to redouble efforts to keep greenhouse gas emissions trending downward and transition our state to a clean-energy economy that produces thousands of high-quality jobs.”
Between 2005 and 2022, North Carolina cut gross greenhouse gas emissions by about 21%, with net emissions—accounting for absorption by natural lands—falling by approximately 30%. These declines occurred as the state’s population grew by 23% and real Gross State Product rose by 38%. Emissions peaked in 2007 but declined quickly after 2010 due to shifts away from coal toward natural gas and renewable energy sources, as well as reductions in fossil fuel combustion. Federal standards on vehicles also contributed to lower transportation sector emissions.
The transportation sector remains the largest source of carbon pollution, accounting for nearly two-fifths of gross statewide emissions in 2022. Meanwhile, forests, natural lands, and agricultural areas absorbed about one-third of total gross emissions that year. Aside from a pandemic-related dip in 2020, emission levels recorded in 2022 were the lowest since at least 1994.
The DEQ updates this inventory every two years. For this edition, staff refined estimation methods across all sectors using new data sources and methodologies provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). As a result, direct comparisons with previous inventories may not be appropriate.
This update does not include possible increases related to EPA’s recent repeal of vehicle emission standards announced earlier this month.
The inventory serves policymakers and planners seeking insights into past trends as well as current conditions regarding greenhouse gases. It also acts as a baseline for evaluating mitigation strategies aimed at further reducing future emissions.
Additionally, the findings support North Carolina’s Climate Pollution Reduction Grant program which seeks to prioritize measures absorbing or reducing atmospheric carbon.
The full inventory report is available online at deq.nc.gov/GHGinventory.
The Department of Environmental Quality is responsible for regulating air quality, managing permits, enforcing environmental laws, overseeing waste management activities, safeguarding water resources across North Carolina’s air, land, water bodies and coastal areas (https://www.deq.nc.gov/). The agency focuses on promoting science-based stewardship that benefits public health while encouraging economic prosperity throughout the state (https://www.deq.nc.gov/), supports education on environmental issues (https://www.deq.nc.gov/), maintains its central office at Raleigh’s West Jones Street location (https://www.deq.nc.gov/), and works toward protecting North Carolina’s natural resources (https://www.deq.nc.gov/).
