In recent years, the United States has seen significant changes in immigration patterns, which have had a direct impact on North Carolina’s population and labor market. According to new data from the U.S. Census Bureau, there was a sharp decline in immigration between July 2024 and July 2025, resulting in slower population growth. If this trend continues, net international migration could fall to levels not seen for decades.
North Carolina’s population typically grows through natural change (more births than deaths), domestic migration (people moving from other states), and international migration (people arriving from other countries). Historically, most of the state’s growth has come from domestic migration. However, starting in 2022, North Carolina experienced a notable rise in international migration that peaked in 2024 with nearly 83,000 more people moving into the state from abroad than leaving it. Even though net international migration dropped to 47,000 between July 2024 and July 2025, it remained higher than earlier periods.
The influx of immigrants also expanded North Carolina’s labor force. Foreign-born labor force participation reached its lowest point at 68% in 2021 but increased each year thereafter. By 2025, participation rose to 72%, meaning almost three out of four working-age immigrants were employed or seeking work.
Foreign-born workers continue to participate in the labor force at higher rates than native-born residents. In 2025, native-born participation averaged only 59%, maintaining a consistent gap over two decades that is mainly due to age differences; immigrants are more likely to be within their prime working years (ages 25-54).
Employment estimates based on the Current Population Survey show that immigration accounted for most of North Carolina’s employment growth recently. From 2021 to 2025, foreign-born workers increased by about 188,000 compared with around a gain of about 180,000 native-born workers. In particular, all net employment growth during 2023 came from foreign-born workers—a period when employers struggled to fill jobs because of retirements and demographic shifts.
Immigrants hold significant shares of jobs across several sectors: they make up about 37% of construction sector employment and at least 29% in agriculture—though this figure may be underestimated since H-2A visa holders are not included in some data sources. In leisure and hospitality industries such as accommodation and food services, roughly one-fifth of workers are foreign-born.
Looking ahead after the slowdown in immigration observed for mid-2024 through mid-2025, future labor market conditions will depend on multiple factors including ongoing demographic trends and broader economic forces. The contribution of immigration was especially important during the recent period but whether this pattern continues is uncertain given current trends.
It is important to note that changes on both supply (available workforce) and demand (employer needs) sides affect job markets simultaneously. Even if job growth slows or becomes negative statewide—as hiring rates have already fallen to their lowest point in over ten years—it may not be solely due to declining immigration.
Additionally, there can be delays before new immigrants enter the workforce because many must wait for work authorization or face other barriers upon arrival. This means those who arrived between 2022 and early-2024 are still gradually increasing their participation rates into late-2025 and beyond.
Long-term consequences could arise if lower immigration persists since an aging U.S. population combined with declining birthrates means that after about 2030—when annual deaths may surpass births—immigration would become the main driver of population growth nationwide.
LEAD plans continued monitoring as these national shifts shape North Carolina’s labor market landscape.
Some economists have raised concerns about relying too heavily on Current Population Survey figures for measuring immigrant populations due to lower response rates among immigrants by late-2025 (Read more here). The federal government shutdown also caused missing CPS data for October 2025; researchers adjusted their methodology by averaging year-over-year percentage changes across available months.
Recent research shows newer immigrant groups often join the workforce faster than previous cohorts did; an increase in work permit applications between January–April 2025 suggests rising interest among recent arrivals (To read more).
